1st Boston Mayoral Final Poll (part I)

8pm poll release of mayoral head-to-heads; Why the election should have been last year; It all (really) comes down to turnout, which may exceed Prince of Darkness forecast; How Campbell caught Janey

We will be releasing the first poll of Boston’s mayoral final at 8:00pm tonight.

Did you get forwarded this email? Subscribe to the PFP Substack to get all three head-to-head matchups in your inbox as polls close.

It has been 24 weeks since polls were last open in Suffolk County (and since our first two posts, on how Bernie’s Endorsement Gets You $289 and why you should Discount the Whole Foods Perspective). That election was the special general to replace Speaker DeLeo in the 19th Suffolk, in which our polling – which was accurate in the Democratic primary – correctly forecast a surprisingly tight race for second between the GOP nominee and a college student running as an independent.

Boston’s preliminary mayoral election has also come down to a race for second place, but as you know (or you wouldn’t have read this far) this time the silver medal matters. A lot. 

Here’s your PFP analysis for e-day:

1. Results of the final poll of the preliminary election, of 522 voters conducted by Public Policy Polling from Sept 11-12, are at the bottom of this post

2. Results of three potential final head-to-head matchups (Wu-Janey, Wu-Campbell, Wu-AEG) will be released at 8:00pm via another PFP Substack post - sign up here if someone forwarded you this email, and follow along @PrioritiesMass on Twitter

3. Read PFP Fellow Sophia Acker’s piece in CommonWealth Magazine today on why “off-cycle” odd-year election dates like today are bad for representative democracy and for effective governance ...

4. … and review our recent poll with MassINC Polling Group released on September 3rd to understand why such turnout disparities may determine the outcome of today’s election, where turnout will be ...

5. … Lower than 2013’s turnout, if the Prince of Darkness is correct. Did he underestimate turnout again? We compare his 2020 forecasts to actual.

6. Reflecting on the biggest story we already know: how did Campbell catch Janey (at least in polling)? The Globe, field game, and the KPIs with a clear top-two.

Beautiful day to vote out there, and to consider sharing some gratitude to all who run or support those who do, from the historic & talented field of candidates in Boston to the unpaid & grueling down-ballot posts in cities around our Commonwealth.

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PFP Policy Brief: This election should have been last year

In April, Policy For Progress released “Our Democracy is Having an Off Day”. The policy brief, authored by PFP Fellow Sophia Acker, summarized the academic research demonstrating the pernicious effects of municipalities holding off-cycle elections: low turnout, skewed turnout inflating influence of older & white voters, and the disproportionate role of special interests.

Sophia has a new piece out in CommonWealth Magazine today on the impact on today’s election and why Boston & cities around the state should move elections to even years.

This builds on our Conversation For Progress on the benefits of syncing municipal elections with national ones - and the political path to get there - which included perspectives from MassVOTE and the nation’s leading researchers from Brown & UC Berkeley and polling from MassINC Polling Group that showed broad voter support for a move “On-Cycle.” 

The Boston Globe editorialized in favor of our proposal, noting: “This is a popular idea. And little wonder. Extra elections are expensive. And a larger, more representative electorate is good for democracy — and good for the city.” 

The change could not happen for this year’s election, but it turns out this year’s election could demonstrate the point more clearly than any in recent memory.

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It all – really, truly – comes down to turnout

On September 3rd, PFP released a MassINC Polling Group survey of Boston voters who participated in the November 2020 election. This sampling enabled analysis of voters grouped by “turnout score,” the modeled likelihood to vote metric used by campaigns, and by municipal voter history.

As MPG President and internet/podcast personality Steve Koczela noted, the online joke of “it all comes down to turnout” is especially true in this race.

Academic research meets Boston politics at this intersection: among voters in the quartile most likely to vote, the candidate endorsed by the firefighters beats the combined total of the two female Black candidates 23% vs. 19%. Among the lowest quartile, the reverse is true: 9% vs. 24%.

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So about turnout …  could the Prince of Darkness be wrong two Septembers in a row?

Secretary of State Bill Galvin, lovingly referred to in Massachusetts political circles as the Prince of Darkness (lovingly, right? Please say “lovingly.” We mean no offense!), has renowned political instincts and a historical pattern of correctly predicting turnout.

Yesterday, he predicted Boston’s turnout would actually be lower (100k-110k) than the last open mayoral race in 2013 despite 9.3% population growth over the last decade. 

The good news for those rooting for democracy (and for those candidates who benefit from higher turnout) is that Galvin was uncharacteristically wrong a year ago. The day before last year’s statewide primary election, Galvin forecast 1.2 million votes cast on the low end. The actual total was greater than 1.7 million - 42% higher than forecast.

Similar 42% growth from the 100k low end would yield 142,000 - far more than the 113,219 who voted in the September 2013 prelim. One factor pushing against such potential growth is that much of the September 2020 turnout increase was due to early vote predominantly in the suburbs, as MPG showed.

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How did Campbell catch Janey (at least in polling)? The Globe, KPB, and the KPIs with a clear top-two

In mid-April, a MassINC poll showed a clear top-two: Michelle Wu at 19% and Kim Janey at 18%. Annissa Essaibi-George, heiress to a clear base, was in single digits but would pop in polls soon thereafter: 14% in Emerson/7News and 22% in a Progressive Polls/Bay State Banner poll the following month.

Meanwhile, Andrea Campbell was at 4% with 26% favorability. 

Five months later, with just five days to go before the election, Campbell passed Janey in two polls released within hours: a Beacon Research poll reported by Politico and an Emerson/7News poll. In the Suffolk/Globe poll released days earlier, Campbell’s favorability was 64%, second only to Wu, and her net favorability of 52% was 17 points higher than Janey’s. In the PPP poll below, Campbell was again just ahead of Janey.

With all polls released in the final two weeks showing Michelle Wu easily taking one of two spots in the final, focus turned to the suddenly three-way race for second place. And one big question: how did Campbell catch Janey? 

That slew of late polls, after none in July and nearly all of August, provided evidence that the Campbell surge is driven by three factors:

1. Ground Game - In the MPG/PFP poll, Wu and Campbell were tied atop the field in voter contact. Each campaign had reached 49% of voters who reported contact from any campaign. Despite the benefits of quasi-incumbency, just 40% reported being contacted by the Janey campaign. 

While an imperfect metric capturing the effectiveness of a campaign, the late surge by both Wu and Campbell align with this metric (the only “field” metric available in any publicly released poll). 

2. Trends in underlying Key Indicators showed clear top-two of Wu & Campbell

Before passing Janey in first choice vote choice in the closing days, polls taken in late summer showed Campbell overtaking Janey in metrics capturing favorability and potential support (total of 1st and 2nd choice vote) in addition to voter contact.

Between the June and September polls conducted by Suffolk/Boston Globe, Janey’s net favorability advantage suffered 22 point swing vs. Campbell - down 9% net with Campbell climbing 13%. 

Moving up the vote ladder, Campbell had an 18% gain between those two polls when looking at both 1st and 2nd choice votes. Wu also had a double-digit gain in aggregate vote, while Janey and George were effectively flat (+3 and +2) as Campbell went from 4th place to 2nd place on that metric.

The money race showed a similar story. According to OCPF, Campbell and Wu topped the field in both campaign fundraising and in the aggregate (campaign + PAC) from September 1, 2020 through September 1, 2021.

3. Momentum - Globe answers the Gray Lady

In May, the New York Times endorsed Kathryn Garcia - who registered 4% and 5% in the last two polls before the endorsement - for mayor ahead of the June primary. Garcia soon surged, and finished the following month’s election at 49.6%.

With apologies to legendary Boston political journalist - and author of the authoritative book on the last open mayoral election - Gin Dumcius, now Managing Editor of the Dorchester Reporter, it appears as though the Boston Globe endorsement of Andrea Campbell has mattered.

The Boston Globe endorsed the winner in the tight race for the 4th Congressional district last year, but the data story is less illuminating than this same race in 2013. In that preliminary, John Barros was at 3% in the final two polls conducted before the Boston Globe’s endorsement of him on September 17th, one week before the election. 

Barros finished at more than 8%, proportional growth far beyond any other candidate. A Campbell surge is clear to this point, but with outcomes from 2nd place to 4th place still possible, as ballots are counted tonight it may be fun to think “Gin or Globe?”

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Final prelim poll echoes the story: Wu alone, followed by AEG → Campbell →  Janey all within MOE

Public Policy Polling, one of few national Democratic pollsters with an A- in pollster ratings by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, conducted the poll of 522 likely voters from September 11-12. 

The topline results show a similar story to polls released over the last week: Wu with a strong lead, AEG in second with Campbell narrowly ahead of Janey - and all three within the margin of error of 4.3%

All likely head-to-head finalist matchups - Wu/AEG, Wu/Campbell, Wu/Janey - will be released at 8:00pm tonight.