Baker is on the clock: 82 days for a decision
Charlie’s choice, and its ripple effects on Healey and multiple 2022 races, now has a deadline. And it was set by Trump.
Trump’s endorsement of Geoff Diehl was greeted with chuckles locally. But the election’s mechanics and calendar show that Baker's days as a Republican politician are likely numbered.
And that number is 82 days. A deadline is good news for the dozens of candidates waiting for the cascade, from AG Maura Healey, to the state Senators who’ll enter statewide primaries, to the state Reps seeking to replace them, and so on.
Let’s start at the top of the chain reaction, and 82 day deadline. Baker has several options for 2022:
Retire from elected office, returning to the lucrative, comfortable private sector (or maybe the Biden Administration). Provide a small win for Trump.
Chances? Most likely, and possibly the most rational.
Unenroll from the GOP to run as an independent, forgoing the Republican primary, scrambling the calculus for Maura Healey (and her war chest of millions), and rendering Diehl either irrelevant or a pathetic spoiler.
Chances? Somewhat unlikely, but possibly in the sweet spot of least stressful and best aggregate shot at re-election.
Switch parties to run as a Democrat, effectively eliminating the general election, shrinking the campaign calendar, and creating a high-stakes election with clearer policy implications. But with convention-organizing mechanics that may be unappealing.
Chances? Highly unlikely.
Run Again as a Republican, facing extinction in an exhausting GOP primary with a potentially embarrassing end to his political career, delivering a major victory to Trump and functionally eradicating the Massachusetts Republican Party in 2022.
Chances? Very likely at first blush, unlikely after looking at the numbers.
What’s it like to be Baker?
Dude has gotta be exhausted, and disenchanted. Son of a Reagan administration member with eyes on the Corner Office since at least the ’90s. Wins his second try for the office, then sees his approval skyrocket by mid-June of his first term.
Politicos have noted, even through last week’s endorsement, that Baker is helped by having Trump as a foil. But the surge in Baker’s popularity in 2015 predated Trump’s descent down the escalator. Baker realized a dream just in time for a clown to take the reins of the GOP and now, more than six years later, as executives around the country “call it quits” due to Covid burnout, Trump’s complete and total ownership over the Republican Party are as strong as ever - and complicating Baker’s re-election decision.
Rolling the Primary Dice
It sounds absurd that the primary election would be tougher for Baker. The MassGOP is so small and weak that there are more Democratic senators named Michael (5) than Republican senators (3). But the lack of size and strength makes it easy for a relatively small group of extremists to dominate - which they are. That’s how black holes operate.
In 2018, Baker got 67% of the general election vote, but just 64% of the primary vote despite his primary opponent spending less than $150,000 (and being, according to the Southern Poverty Law Center, “perhaps best-known for co-writing the thoroughly discredited Holocaust revisionist book The Pink Swastika”).
Baker received 174,126 votes in that 2018 primary, after Trump got 312,425 votes in the (much higher turnout) 2016 primary. There were 1,167,202 Trump voters in Massachusetts last November.
Massachusetts has “Partially Open” primaries, so unenrolled voters (57% of all registered voters) could pull a GOP primary ballot to save Baker. And Baker should have no problem raising enough money to run an aggressive program to do so. But an actually contested primary is a long process, from a mind-numbingly annoying convention in April run by a party apparatus working aggressively against him through a September primary.
Could Baker endure the headaches and win? Probably … but only probably. And the former investor knows that a limited upside investment with massive downside risk is a bad bet. And the state of the MassGOP makes the downside likelier than it may seem.
What’s up with the MassGOP?
Of the two major parties in all 50 states, the Massachusetts Republican Party is the 2nd weakest in affiliation (27% of voters consider themselves as GOP or lean GOP - no other state GOP ranks lower; only Democrats in Wyoming are lonelier) and last in registration as of 2018 (among states where voters register, only Idaho’s Democrats were at 11%). As of 2020, fewer than 10% of Massachusetts voters were registered Republicans.
In short, the MassGOP ranks 99th out of 100 state parties.
But the MassGOP isn’t just exceptionally small - it is very Trumpy. And has been from the get-go: of the first 29 primaries in 2016, MassGOP voters gave Trump (49%) his best showing.
Meaning Alabama, Texas, Arkansas, and Oklahoma all went for Trump with less enthusiasm and vigor than your friends and neighbors here in the Commonwealth. Well, your neighbors anyway.
And no one better encapsulates the current state of the MassGOP than Geoff Diehl.
Is Diehl the perfect storm of primary success & general election futility?
Geoff Diehl has proven he can crush all types of Republicans in primaries, and also lose badly to all sorts of Democrats in the general. He dominated the three-way 2018 GOP US Senate primary with 55% despite being badly outspent. He has also lost by more than 15 points to a wide spectrum of Democrats:
Despite Trump’s backing, Diehl is barely running a competent campaign. He raised less in September ($11,511) than Michelle Wu raised per day over the month ($13,291). With less than $25,773 in the bank, Diehl may be able to buy Scott Brown’s barn jacket but not even the smallest GMC pickup truck - and has no chance of replicating that 2010 win, much less reassembling a Baker coalition.
Evaluating Baker’s options
Retire Option 1 would provide Trump a huge victory - especially if announced anytime soon. Just weeks after Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez quit due to a Trump-backed primary challenge, the orange man would show he can knock off one of the most popular politicians in America, and one in a deep-blue state.
Leave the GOP Options 2 and 3, according to Massachusetts election regulations, require Baker to unenroll from the Republican Party 91 days before the last Tuesday in May. In 2022, that is May 31 - meaning that the clerk in Baker’s hometown of Swampscott would need to receive a change form by December 30, 2021. Or 82 days from today.
Running as an independent would allow Baker to avoid the primary while handing Diehl and his backers a fate worse than defeat: irrelevance.
Running as a Democrat is highly unlikely, despite polling showing he could roll and recent statewide party-switchers in Texas and Oklahoma. It would provide the knockout blow to Diehl’s backers, reduce the timeline and strain of an election, and make any policy-based campaigning easier to convert with a legislature that watched its own primary voters and general voters affirm. But Baker would have to get 15% at the Democratic convention, which would require a form of organizing distinct from his prior political experience.
Face Extinction Directly Retirement remains the likeliest option - no Massachusetts governor has served three consecutive four-year terms - and, while seemingly preposterous, running for re-election as a Republican may still be the most likely path leading to a loss and major victory for Trump.
Former Ohio Gov. John Kasich paraphrased the old boss of Baker’s dad in declaring that “I didn’t leave the Republican Party. The Republican Party left me.” In Baker’s case the GOP is asking him to leave.
Many have noted that Baker’s brand of New England Republican is nearly extinct. As the last of this species seeks to adapt to changing environmental conditions - and a new form of predator - its path to survival is unclear.
Baker’s cross-partisan popularity and the ineptitude of the MassGOP have kept a lid on the emergence of identifiable factions within the parties as the battleground for politics and policy. Each potential Baker path would send a different ripple out in shaping those factions over the next decade, with massive ramifications for the Democratic gubernatorial primary in 2022 and beyond.
Can Baker keep that lid on for another four years?
We will know which paths to cross off by December 30th.
Charlie Baker, the relevance of the MassGOP, and numerous 2022 races are now on the clock.