New poll of statewide races + Introducing WelcomePAC
National initiative on what it takes for Democrats to win the middle, beat Trumpism, and save our democracy. Plus, incoming poll data on statewide Massachusetts Democratic primary races.
PFP brings an evidence-based approach to policy & politics in Massachusetts, elevating issues and leaders too often overlooked. A soon-to-be-released PFP/MassINC Polling Group poll of Massachusetts primary voters will bring more insights. Preliminary analysis from PFP Policy Advisor John Griffin on that latest poll (fielded Aug 19-21) is below, but first a note on a national initiative of interest.
PFP’s network also takes an evidence-based approach to making progress on the national level. In the lead-up to the 2020 presidential primary, an initiative launched by PFP allies opened an office up the road in Manchester, NH to bring independent voters into the First In The Nation primary. These were voters that decide elections, but are silent on Twitter (not a quip, it is a political science finding!) Weeks later, WelcomePAC co-founder Lauren Harper launched the second chapter ahead of South Carolina’s primary.
Fast forward to 2022, and WelcomePAC is investing more than $1.1m in what The New York Times described as a “new Democratic-aligned outfit that applies insurgent tactics to support center-left candidates in swing districts”. WelcomePAC’s work and perspective on the need for a big-tent Democratic Party has also been featured in The Washington Post, CNN Politics, NBC News, and Slate - and analysis on how to win over the middle is posted every Sunday morning via Substack.
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Biden, Baker, and the Voters Who Decide Elections
Back to Massachusetts - and what it has in common with national political challenges & opportunities for making progress.
In January’s PFP/MassINC Polling Group poll, likely Democratic voters were asked if a Charlie Baker endorsement would make them more or less likely to vote for a statewide Democratic candidate in the primary. The fact that Democratic primary voters in Massachusetts were more likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by a Republican drew headlines, but the trend has accelerated throughout the primary. Nearly 6 in 10 Democratic primary voters would now be moved positively by a Baker endorsement in this latest poll, with just 17% less likely.
More Likely or Less Likely to vote for statewide candidate endorsed by Baker in Democratic primary?
January’s poll also asked if Democratic voters prefer the next governor be more liberal, more conservative, or about the same as Baker. Just 31% chose more liberal (again, this is among **Democratic primary voters**).
In June and August polling with MassINC Polling Group, likely 2022 Democratic primary voters were asked if Biden should run for re-election and - if not - should the party nominate a candidate more liberal, more conservative, or about the same.
If Biden does not run, should Democrats nominate a candidate who is more liberal, more conservative, or about the same?
The key to running effective campaigns (and then governing effectively) lies in these large majorities of **Democratic primary voters** in Massachusetts - and around the country.
Full poll results on statewide races in Massachusetts will be released soon - stay tuned to our Twitter handle - follow here @PrioritiesMass