Statewide Poll results & mythbusting
30 weeks until we know the next generation of statewide leaders - and to help direct where they are leading us
Our most recent piece in GBH News exposes the two big myths of statewide elections:
the default assumption of a competitive general election in the face of evidence demonstrating the impotence of a Baker-less GOP
the narrative of a significant leftward shift in the Democratic primary electorate, despite mounting evidence to the contrary in all but the “Left Decile”
More on that below. But first, if you missed our poll release zoom last week, you can check out the poll presentation and full results on the Policy For Progress events page on Healey’s big lead and on Baker looming large among moderate Democratic primary voters.
The biggest thing you missed was an overview from MassINC’s Simone Ngongi-Lukula on recent reports on Early College and school integration. Check out those reports, and also note the strong favorable polling of likely primary voters for action on both.
Why is that the biggest thing? Because it doesn’t matter if all the political analysis in our polling and electoral breakdowns are correct unless that contributes to effective policy.
Looking clearly at the electorate is step one. So read our mythbusting at GBH: Why the Democratic primary is the only real race for governor this year and then read on for some additional context.
The Problem of Myths
On point #1, WGBH’s Adam Reilly had a companion story asking “Is everyone underestimating Geoff Diehl?” Over recent days, there have been a few new developments for the Massachusetts Republican Party:
The long-awaited “moderate Republican” candidate for governor finally emerged in the form of Chris Doughty, and in the campaign announcement article in the region's largest newspaper was quoted as discussing when “a fetus can feel pain”. There continues to be zero evidence of a GOP heir to ‘Teflon Charlie’ Baker (he of the 100% score from Planned Parenthood)
Geoff Diehl hired Corey Lewandowski, who was recently fired by a Trump PAC for sexual harassment allegations (same guy who was charged with misdemeanor battery on a reporter in 2016)
On point #2, check out Scot Lehigh’s analysis of the recent PFP/MassINC Polling Group statewide poll: Moderate politics is the right path, even in Massachusetts: A new survey shows the popularity of a Charlie Baker-style approach.
As the next Massachusetts campaign season commences, here are some interesting nuggets for both Democrats and Republicans hoping to claim the Corner Office.
Moderate Republican Governor Charlie Baker’s endorsement would be much more influential than the imprimatur of Democratic left-wing crusader Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
In the Democratic primary. For Democratic primary voters.
Provocative questions aside, the pro-Baker fundamentals of the Democratic primary voter continues to be stunning. Just 17% of Democratic primary voters would be less likely to vote for a Baker-endorsed candidate (compared to 51% more likely) and just 38% want the next governor to be more liberal than the current Republican(ish) governor.
The Problem of Myths
Why do these two false narratives matter? Because of why anything related to politics & government matter: these narratives impact what is possible in improving lives and communities in Massachusetts. And for the fewer than 7 million of us who live in this great Commonwealth, we’ve got real responsibility — what we do historically has a disproportionate impact on the other 320 million Americans.
April marks 16 years since Romneycare extended healthcare coverage to 98% of residents.
May marks 18 years since Goodridge v Department of Public Health granted marriage equality.
June marks 29 years since the Massachusetts Education Reform Act provided a new funding, innovation, and accountability system for public schools.
All three drove significant policy change in DC and throughout the country, greatly improving life in America.
September will see the election of the next Governor —and Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, and Auditor. Policy debates grounded in both evidence and political reality can set the stage for more national leadership.
Polls close at 8pm, 30 weeks from today.