1st Boston Mayoral Final Poll (part II)
Poll Release -- mayoral final head-to-heads: Wu vs George, Wu vs. Campbell, Wu vs. Janey; The Prince is Right?
Polls are closed in Boston, and Massachusetts is one step closer to Senator Wu.
As for 2nd place, you may have heard it all comes down to turnout. Did 25% of voters at 25% turnout collectively bargain for an AEG-Wu final? Will Campbell’s Globe-mentum & field game make it a Harvard-Princeton final?
This post covers three things you should know while awaiting results:
Turnout does not have to be the story in municipal elections - there is one simple fix: move the elections to even years.
But yes, turnout is still the story, and - while still TBD - Galvin’s low forecast looks correct
Poll Release - Head-to-Heads: Wu holds leads of 20%, 16%, and 3%
But first, thanks for reading (and replying!). Despite having a narrow audience of Massachusetts-based political professionals, political amateurs, journalists, and policy wonks, all of our posts have received between 3,000 and 6,000 views. Our first post today is almost there after just a few hours, please share it with anyone who may be interested, and let us know what else we should be diving into.
PFP exists to understand how good policy can become political reality. Low-turnout elections are bad - and drastically increasing turnout is as simple as syncing municipal elections with national ones. Please read our Policy Brief from April, the Boston Globe endorsement of the concept, and today’s CommonWealth opinion piece from PFP Fellow Sophia Acker - and if you are a political leader, ask us how to harness the favorable public opinion data, clear academic research, and potential coalition to make it happen.
What the market says
As of 7:00pm, betting markets had Wu as a significant favorite against the field with Campbell & Janey at 7:1 apiece. Essaibi-George, despite a 2nd place polling average (and never placing below 3rd the entire race), was at 11:1.
The Prince (of Darkness) is Right?
In Part I, we insinuated Secretary of State Bill Galvin’s forecast of low turnout could be wrong. While we don’t have all the data yet, at this point it looks like he was right. Which got us thinking ... time for a new nickname for the Prince of Darkness. We have it on good authority that if you see him on the street and randomly shout a question at him he’ll give a wry smile and actually answer you. That doesn’t seem dark. Plus, his royal competition is struggling:
- Prince Harry? No longer a prince!
- Artist Formerly Known As? RIP
- Prince of Providence? RIP
- Prince Andrew ...
- Prince Fielder? Retired in 2016
Please send suggestions for new Bill Galvin nicknames. OK, now for the real thing:
Head to Head Matchups
Wu vs. Janey
Wu 45%
Janey 29%
Wu vs. Campbell
Wu 38%
Campbell 35%
Wu vs. AEG
Wu 48%
AEG 28%
See below for chart form & raw form - and a reminder that the first poll after the 2013 preliminary election had Marty Walsh down similarly (44% to 29%), and no one in this field looks to stop playing until the final whistle.
Enjoy democracy, and don’t forget to thank the participants!
In chart form:
In raw form:
