1st Poll of 2022 - for governor & more
11am Monday poll release; Predictions past and future
Join PFP at 11am this Monday morning for the release of our 2022 statewide poll with MassINC Polling Group - REGISTER HERE.
In addition to polling on statewide primary elections, including for governor, key policy questions were also tested - including on school integration and Early College.
Last week, PFP partnered with MassINC for the release of Choosing Integration: A Discussion Paper and Policy Primer. The small-group breakout discussions were off-the-record and highly engaging, and you can find a recording of the kickoff presentation here.
2022 is a big year for Massachusetts, and we cannot make progress in key policy areas without a clear-eyed view of our politics. Looking forward to the conversation tomorrow morning, and to how we can better forecast - and shape - both the policy and political dynamics facing our state in the year ahead.
In 2021, PFP released five polls, two policy briefs, and held events on issues including democracy, housing, education, and segregation with more than 1,000 attendees. Our analysis had more than 21,000 views. This was significant growth from 2020, and we look forward to more in the year ahead - thank you to everyone for the engagement & support, please be in touch with any ideas!
Predictions Past
We’ve also made a few predictions, some small (like our primary & general state legislative polling) and some bigger:
Ahead of the 2020 statewide primary, our electoral analysis demonstrated why the 2018 narrative of House members falling to primary challengers was confined to a small slice of the state and would never threaten 90% of state legislators (no unindicted representatives, state or federal, lost in 2020)
Ahead of September’s 2021 Boston mayoral preliminary, the survey design of our poll with MassINC Polling Group demonstrated that low turnout could propel Annissa Essaibi-George into the final (it did) … we also questioned if turnout would be higher than Galvin’s low estimate (it was not)
In October 2021, we predicted Charlie Baker would not run for re-election - especially not as a Republican (he didn’t) … but gave decent odds to him running as an Independent (didn’t do that either)
Our poll with Public Policy Polling was the first of the November 2021 mayoral final, showing Wu dominating AEG (she did) … and a Wu-Campbell race within the margin of error (we’ll never know for sure)
Predictions Future
We’ll have more predictions for 2022 based off of polling and electoral analysis, but below are a quick ten to start us off. See you tomorrow at 11, REGISTER HERE
Democratic gubernatorial primary turnout will break 1 million for the first time since 1990
Independent voters will be a majority of the Democratic primary electorate for the first time ever
The Democratic convention - and the 15% delegate threshold required for statewide candidates to get on the ballot - will be highly entertaining.
More than 25% of ballots will be left blank for at least one competitive statewide office
No more than 1 of the 150+ incumbent Democratic state legislators serving full terms who seek re-election will lose a primary election
No member of Congress will lose a primary or general election
No matter your subscription status, it will be impossible to read a Boston Herald article online
MA will continue to have the nation's most impressive congressional gerrymander (9-0) after redistricting
Student Dispatch will break a major Massachusetts political story
Elizabeth Warren will be ramping up a presidential campaign by year-end