Post-Election Prediction Accountability

Myths stayed busted, Incumbents returned, Moderate Democrats Rewarded, GOP Flounders

Last February, we busted some myths (competitive general and progressive primary)  in ‘GBH, building off our Near Year’s predictions for the 2022 cycle. 

We believe in accountability, so here we are three weeks after the election to check the scorecard. As forecast, the Democratic primary was the only competitive statewide election in Massachusetts this year, and the MassGOP effectively ceased to be a major party. Last week, the voters made that clear. We were also off in a few places (for example, Democratic primary turnout was below our estimate). Here we go, first with the ‘GBH predictions: 

1. Prediction 1 (The myth of a competitive general election): There would be no competitive race for Governor. We predicted that the winner of the Democratic gubernatorial primary would become governor. Healey won by 29 points. She has been the presumptive governor since she cleared the Democratic primary field in the spring. There was never any serious chance that Geoff Diehl was going to win, and any claim to the contrary was always unserious. Election ratings agencies did not move the race to “Safe Democratic” until later in the cycle, but it was clear all along.

2. Prediction 2 (The myth of progressive primary voters): Massachusetts’ Democratic primary voters would reward more moderate candidates in statewide contests. We also predicted that Democratic primary voters would not select the candidates aligned with the most ‘progressive’ end of the party. Maura Healey’s embrace of Governor Baker and his legacy proved that prediction before voting got underway, as did her decision not to fill out the Progressive Mass questionnaire. Progressive Mass’s endorsed candidates did not succeed in any of the statewide races, while the Baker Democrat team notched a clear victory with its support of Lt. Gov-elect Mayor Kim (“Get Stuff Done”) Driscoll.  Statewide, Massachusetts Democrats are center-left Charlie Baker fans, and they chose their candidates accordingly.

3. Prediction 3: No competitive statewide general elections. Even down-ballot, we predicted that Democrats would sweep. The commentariat made a lot of hay out of Anthony Amore’s auditor bid, which makes sense if you assume there has to be something competitive in a statewide general election. There wasn’t though. Democrats swept. Diana DiZoglio beat Amore for Auditor by 17 points.

4. Prediction 4: GOP sinks further into irrelevance. We predicted that the Republican Party would continue its decline as one of the two weakest state parties in the entire country. That trend continues apace. The party is run by an extremist who actively undermines its meager State House delegation; its statewide slate ranged from a raging homophobe to a “moderate” who voted for Trump in 2020; and Baker is more popular with Democrats than Republicans. So it’s no surprise that the Republican Party failed to take winnable legislative seats, and it continues to have fewer state Senators (3) than Democrats have Senators Named Michael (5) in the 40-seat chamber.

5. Prediction 5: Media narratives will pretend the GOP is still relevant. Finally, we predicted that the “competitive general election myth” would dominate the news cycles despite all evidence pointing to its lack of basis in reality. As mentioned above, that was the case.

And then on to how we fared with our New Year’s predictions from last year. Still lots TBD here:

1. Democratic gubernatorial primary turnout will break 1 million for the first time since 1990. Wrong. Even with multiple competitive primaries at the top of the ticket, we were still wrong here. There is a clear need to spend more time thinking about turnout in lower-profile elections like primaries. PFP just hosted an event on increasing municipal election turnout, specifically for Black voters in Boston, which you can find here.

2. Independent voters will be a majority of the Democratic primary electorate for the first time ever.  Close. Independent (unenrolled) voters made up 45% of Democratic primary voters in 2022, up from 41% in 2018. The share of unenrolled voters is climbing, and lower turnout = lower independent share.

3. The Democratic convention - and the 15% delegate threshold required for statewide candidates to get on the ballot - will be highly entertaining. Wrong. It ended up being a fairly straightforward convention, at least for the gubernatorial contest, with Healey gliding to the party’s endorsement.

4. More than 25% of ballots will be left blank for at least one competitive statewide office. TBD, though likely close. We will see how close when the statewide official results are posted.

5. No more than 1 of the 150+ incumbent Democratic state legislators serving full terms who seek re-election will lose a primary election. Correct. Exactly one Democratic incumbent lost his primary—and it was a legislator who had already lost as an incumbent once before (Marcos Devers, who lost his reelection primary in 2016 as well). 

6. No member of Congress will lose a primary or general election. Correct.  Since the first Globe prediction on the left decile, no member has lost.

7. No matter your subscription status, it will be impossible to read a Boston Herald article online. Correct. The private equity firm who owns the Herald needs to pay whoever it is that runs CommonWealth’s website. 

8. MA will continue to have the nation's most impressive congressional gerrymander (9-0) after redistricting. Correct. With lots of attention on this cycle’s redistricting woes for Democrats and good luck for Republicans, Massachusetts continues to more than pull its weight for Democrats’ numbers in the House. 

9. Student Dispatch will break a major Massachusetts political story. TBD. It is back, and there is still time left in the year.  

10. Elizabeth Warren will be ramping up a presidential campaign by year-end. TBD, but nothing yet. 

So, what does this all mean? As Massachusetts currently stands, the Democratic primary is where voters have the greatest opportunity to shape their government. But pundits, politicians, and the press still talk like the general election is the “big” one - all of which contributes to outsized attention, news coverage, money, and turnout going to the November election. 

November 8th was a good day for Massachusetts. We elected a slate of strong Democrats to statewide office, and Democrats did better than expected on the national stage, too. But for our democracy in Massachusetts, we need to see these elections as a sign that it’s time to retire the competitive general election myth here in Massachusetts. The real election is the Democratic primary. For those who want pragmatic, results-oriented leadership in the Commonwealth, the only question that matters is which Democrat to support.