The Primary’s Other Winners & Losers

A bad night for the far-left, men, and Mayor Wu. A good night for Baker Democrats, SuperPACs, and … Quentin Palfrey?!?

The only poll that matters is election day (although CommonWealth readers caught Andrea Campbell’s late surge in PFP polling 24hrs before results were in). 

But winners and losers are not just those on the ballot:

The Biggest Loser: Progressive Mass

As noted by POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky in this morning’s Playbook “Progressives’ Bad Night” section:

“All of the statewide candidates endorsed by key progressive activists groups Progressive Massachusetts and Our Revolution Massachusetts … either lost their races or didn’t make it to primary day.”

Their gubernatorial candidate dropped out, Lieutenant Governor candidate never threatened second place, and their Attorney General candidate dropped out. The “Left Decile” framework continues to apply: far-left challengers are only successful in the 10% most-Democratic districts (although they lost one of those too). 

Statewide Democratic primary voters are more likely to want Charlie Baker than a revolution - as we’ve shown again and again and again.

Progressive Mass’ most influential moment in the 2022 election cycle was when The Boston Globe’s Matt Stout and Samantha Gross reported that Maura Healey declined the Progressive Mass candidate questionnaire (a snub that Progressive Mass touts on their website. A win for purity. A loss for, well, winning.)

The Surprise Winner: Quentin Palfrey 

After spending 95% of the cycle flailing in distant third place, kept afloat by public matching dollars and antipathy for his more dynamic competitors, Quentin Palfrey saw the writing on the wall and helped rewrite the AG race. 

Palfrey offended some of his supporters by heeding the collective freakout of Liss-Riordan buying the AG race. In a time for choosing, Palfrey could have chosen the easy path and kept his head down to finish a respectable third place with fond memories of winning the spring Democratic convention.

But Palfrey did what many progressives rarely do: he accepted electoral reality, made a pragmatic decision with conviction, and joined the late-August counteroffensive that reversed Liss-Riordan’s summer surge.

The Surprise Loser: Michelle Wu 

Mayor Tom Menino won some elections and lost some elections. But his power always grew through a machine built for clout and warding off challengers - not for pursuing higher office. 

Last night Wu gained (at least) one potentially serious US Senate challenger while her county and statewide endorsed candidates all lost. Oh, and Andrea Campbell appeared to dominate Liss-Riordan in Wu’s home precinct.

The Trailblazing Winner: Maura Healey 

Healey recognized that the corner office was hers, so spent her time shaping the political world she will soon lead. By flexing her muscle down-ballot - especially in the race for her successor as AG - Healey became the first Democrat to operationalize Massachusetts’ new reality as a one-party state. The fights are now factional and personal, not partisan. Will more state leaders - like those in charge of a Senate with just 3 Republicans and a House with only a few more - start to flex similarly?

The Most Expensive Loser: Self-funders 

Shannon Liss-Riordan and Chris Doughty spent $13m combined - and combined for fewer votes than Andrea Campbell.

The Quiet Winner: SuperPACs

Self-funders are out, but SuperPACs are in. All three competitive statewide races featured SuperPACs backing the winner, including two that jump out in campaign finance filings - 

Big Green topped all sector spending, as the Environmental League of Massachusetts followed their 2021 Boston mayoral win with early support for Andrea Campbell along with a slew of state legislative ‘climate champs’ in spending that OCPF has at more than $1.1m through Sept 2. 

Kim Driscoll’s Lt. Gov win was powered by a PAC led by Democrat and Baker campaign architect Will Keyser & Eileen O’Connor that was also over $1m on OCPF.

The Non-Loser: Charlie Baker

There is likely no second guessing in Bakerville for taking the path we predicted in October 2021. Even Baker nemesis Howie Carr’s support couldn't get the moderate (but not really) Doughty And His Millions past Geoff Diehl. Given political reality, Maura "Continue What's Working" Healey will likely get a friendly baton pass out of the corner office. 

Having his team back the successful LG candidate couldn't hurt either.

Loser: Male Candidates Not Named Bill Galvin - the Future Present is Female. Of the 8 statewide elected offices, two will be men next year - and both attended Boston College in the 1960s.

And it wasn’t just statewide - what POLITICO termed the “September Surprise in Worcester” saw Mayor Joe Petty lose his state Senate bid to Robyn Kennedy. 

Eternal Winner: Bill Galvin

While we failed in our attempt last year to get a new nickname for Secretary of State Bill Galvin, maybe DJ Khaled can help: all he does is win. Galvin clocked in at 70% of the vote and the sturdy favorability seen in PFP/MassINC polling show no signs of him slowing down.

Loser: People who treat the general election seriously

Massachusetts is a one-party state. This election is over. 

Focus your time on improving our Commonwealth’s troubled democracy instead.