Wu 57%, AEG 25% - how it happened & why national media will get it wrong
Wu lead grows from 20 to 32 since our first poll of the final; Previously unreleased polling on Marty Walsh & Speaker DeLeo; What the national media will get wrong about Wu
Polling released this morning by MassINC shows the fundamentals have not changed since our preliminary-night poll that showed Campbell within the margin of error against Wu but Annissa Essaibi-George 20 points behind: Wu is dominating, her lead growing from 20 points (48% to AEG’s 28%) to 32 points (57% to 25%).
Four weeks into the seven-week sprint between preliminary and final, Michelle Wu is showing progressives how to win: literally hug House leadership in a TV ad.
On the docket today:
Both Boston mayoral finalists oppose higher turnout, on-cycle municipal elections
Previously unreleased polling on Marty Walsh & Speaker DeLeo
What the national media will get wrong about Wu I: legislative endorsements
What the national media will get wrong about Wu II: “how to pay for it”
Beyond Baker: If he never returns, what’s next - for Democrats?
Both finalists oppose on-cycle elections
After the preliminary election, the disappointment in low turnout has led to a search for answers and the issue of on-cycle elections - and moving to on-cycle elections has continued gaining momentum as the most equitable, effective solution. Bill Walczak of the Dorchester Reporter got both mayoral finalists on the record in opposition (although “neither has elaborated why she is opposed to this progressive measure”). Hear him discuss democracy reforms on Boston Public Radio
In April, Policy For Progress released a policy brief “Our Democracy is Having an Off Day,” featured in a Boston Globe article, which highlighted the report’s polling demonstrating its popularity with Boston voters. Days later, The Boston Globe editorialized in favor. PFP hosted a public conversation with leading experts moderated by PFP Fellow Sophia Acker, author of the report. The conversation featured MassVOTE policy staffer Alex Psilakis; UC-Berkeley Professor Sarah Anzia, author of Timing and Turnout: How Off-Cycle Elections Favor Organized Groups; and Brown University Professor Jonathan Collins, author of Will Concurrent Elections Reshape the Electorate?
The report demonstrated that off-cycle elections consistently lead to low turnout, magnifying power discrepancies in race, socioeconomic status, age, and interest group power. The conversation uncovered that this is “not on the agenda,” but that experiences in California and other geographies demonstrate that once the issue is put on the public agenda the issue remains popular and opponents struggle to make effective arguments.
In late August, PFP released a MassINC poll and held a release event, in partnership with New Democracy Coalition and Housing Forward-MA, which demonstrated that high turnout would likely lead to a Black candidate advancing to the final, while low turnout would likely reward the candidate endorsed by several municipal unions.
In September, turnout in the mayoral race was low and - as our polling and a PFP Fellow’s pre-election opinion piece forecast - shaped the outcome. Time for change, in Boston and municipalities around the state.
Walsh and DeLeo: previously unreleased polling show where the electorate is
Massachusetts’s largest export is politicians for a reason - there are some pretty good practitioners here. Earlier this year, we polled both Boston voters (with MassINC) and voters in DeLeo’s 19th Suffolk (accurately) and found that voters viewed then-Mayor Marty Walsh and former Speaker DeLeo as almost freakishly ideologically attuned to their constituents:
The bell curve visual is impressive - and, if anything, DeLeo was seen as slightly more liberal than his electorate:
Another excellent politician, and very likely the next Mayor of Boston, also appears attuned to where the voters are.
What the national media will get wrong about Wu: legislative endorsements
Expect a deluge of national stories that (like last year) to overhype divisions within the Democratic Party.
Gin Dumcius of the Dorchester Reporter, which sponsored the MassINC poll with The Boston Foundation and WBUR, captures the race in today’s rundown: nary a mention of “rent control,”, with a focus on support from building trades and developers who noted Wu was the first to sign their pledge and said they were not “far apart.”
Hugging legislative leadership in a TV ad is a compelling visual - but also a major difference between Wu and national figures like Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, who combined were endorsed by 0 of 45 Democratic Senate colleagues from other states.
Public alignment with state leaders is also desired by voters - in the August PFP/MassINC poll, 92% of voters believe it important for the next mayor to have a strong working relationship with them (including 67% “very important”). And, given City Hall’s reliance on Beacon Hill for many actions discussed during the campaign, also a governing necessity.
What the national media will get wrong about Wu: how to pay for it
Many expected a deluge of anti-Wu attacks after the preliminary but, unlike critiques of Warren or Democratic gubernatorial candidates, a key question is missing - “How are you going to pay for that?”
There is no need to ask that question, because there is no price tag for Boston voters, at least not one they’ve heard about yet. The nature of the campaign has not forced clear choices - even on issues like education, polling atop the pressing issues in today’s MassINC poll but on which the Globe’s Marcela Garcia pointedly showed the candidates are refusing to debate.
That is another way to stay popular with a broad swath of the electorate. The most interesting overlap in the crosstabs of the MassINC poll is actually Charlie Baker and Michelle Wu - Baker’s favorables were highest with Wu prelim voters (66%) and Baker’s favorables are also higher among those who view Wu favorably (62%) than overall.
Speaking of Baker ...
Beyond Baker: what a post-partisan Democratic primary looks like
Last weekend we pointed out that Trump has put Baker on the clock for a re-election decision, with a strong likelihood he doesn’t run again (as a Republican, anyway), with the clown car remnants of the MassGOP effectively rendering Massachusetts a more extreme version of a one-party state. More to come on what a post-Baker political environment means, not just for the Republican Party, but for Democrats and the future of governing in our Commonwealth.